Latinos Flock to Swing States
One of President Obama’s big advantages in 2012 is the extent to which his demographic coalition is growing at a faster rate than the Republican one. Yes, like almost all Democratic presidential candidates since the 1960s, Barack Obama will lose the white vote by considerable margins, but a larger Latino vote—plus similar margins for turnout and vote share—could offset that. At the moment, according to the latest poll from Univision, two-thirds of Latinos approve of Obama’s job performance. More importantly, the Latino population has grown fastest in the swing states that will prove crucial to the president’s reelection effort. This chart from the Wall Street Journal offers a nice illustration of the fact:
Of course, with all of this, it’s important to remember that high Latino turnout is not a given. Indeed, Univision found that 53 percent of Latinos are less enthusiastic about Obama than they were in 2008. A larger electorate might offset this somewhat, but how much is an open question.